Saint Mary’s and BYU square off for a third time this season in what figures to be another exciting matchup between these WCC rivals. BYU has been a dark horse all year and has surprised many by exceeding expectations. Despite losing sophomore star Erik Mika (who nearly averaged a double double last season) and guard Nick Emery due to NCAA investigations, the Cougars have once again solidified themselves as a threat to the Gaels and Bulldogs atop the conference. BYU heads into this pivotal matchup having recently defeated an upstart San Diego team 85-79 who was no pushover. The Cougars were led by G/F Elijah Bryant, Yoeli Childs, and TJ Haws who combined for 62 of the 85 BYU points.
Despite somewhat of a down year for the young BYU team, this group looks to remain intact for next year. Their big three of Haws, Childs, and Bryant will be back next year and certainly have the makings of an NCAA tournament team. Although BYU is not favored in their semifinal matchup against #20 Saint Mary’s, it is important for BYU to gain experience on the big stage. In their previous two match-ups against the Gaels, BYU first lost 74-64 in an overtime thriller and then again in Moraga 75-62. BYU was able to get out to an early lead in large part to the play of Childs who posted 29 points and 10 rebounds in the loss. For BYU to be successful against this balanced Gaels team, they must limit the attempts in the paint for senior C Jock Landale. Landale had a team high 31 points and 13 rebounds back in December, while shooting 13 of 15 from the field. Those are impeccable numbers and further proves how important Landale is for this Saint Mary’s team. We witnessed in the Gaels loss to Gonzaga how the Bulldogs were able to take Landale out of the game by double teaming him with their plethora of bigs on almost every play. Teams are adapting a similar style when matched up against the Gaels and I believe BYU looks poised to take the route as well. It is essential to keep Childs and Bryant out of foul trouble in this game, otherwise it will get out of hand quick.
Saint Mary’s enters this semifinal matchup having won four of its last five,but most notably a loss against San Francisco who is facing #6 Gonzaga in the early WCC semifinal. The Gaels have been slightly sluggish as of late, especially in their tournament opener against a lowly and inferior Pepperdine team. Pepperdine possessed a 6-25 record, along with having lost 19 of 20 earlier in the year. Saint Mary’s squeaked by with a 69-66 victory in large part to senior forward Calvin Hermanson’s trio of three pointers late in the game. Although they escaped with a win, Saint Mary’s was off their game from start to finish and there is certainly cause for concern heading into this matchup against a much tougher BYU team. The key for Saint Mary’s is execute and get out to an early lead. BYU is no slouch and can easily convert on turnovers by the Gaels. C Jock Landale must assert his dominance in the paint and prove why he is the WCC player of the year. In addition to Landale, the trio of Naar, Hermanson, and Ford must convert on their shots in this game. We witnessed that trio shoot 16-29 (11-18 from three point range) in their game against Pepperdine. At times, they appear passive and I believe they need to take more shots in this game against BYU. Landale is likely to get double teamed, resulting in more chances for Saint Marys’ wing players to operate and hit clutch shots. Another key player who I believe will shine in this matchup is G/F Tanner Krebs. Krebs is often times forgotten about on this balanced team, but is relied up heavily. Krebs has shot just over 40% from three point range this season and has the capability for a breakout game tonight. Although BYU will be a tough matchup, I expect Saint Mary’s to continue their winning ways in a close one. Saint Mary’s knows that with a loss, their NCAA tournament dreams are likely shattered due to their weak strength of schedule. I don’t believe they will come out with another poor performance like they did against Pepperdine. Final Score Prediction: #20 Saint Mary’s 72, BYU 64
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